The Trend of Development and the Pace of Fertility Decline in Developing Countries

Fertility transition has been a central theme of demographic research in the second half of twenty century. In spite of extensive research on the levels، trends، and determinants of fertility in different regions of the world، few studies undertake to examine the onset and the pace of fertility decline it''s variation and change among developing countries. This paper examines the interrelationships between the pace of change in the socio-economic development indicators and the rapidity of fertility transition in developing world. Time-series data on the socio-economic and demographic indicators taking out from the World Bank reports، has been used for the present analysis. Cross-country data for 90 developing countries analyzed here using Excel and SPSS software programs. Statistical analysis including bivariate and multivariate techniques employed to investigate relationships. A negative and relatively weak relationships found between the onset of fertility transition and the pace of fertility decline. In other word، the later date a country enter to the fertility transition، the slower will be it''s fertility decline. There are also a high correlation between the levels of economic development (not the pace of development) at the time of entry to the fertility transition stage and pace of annual fertility decline. Empirical analysis of data from the developing countries experience does not in support of prevailing hypothesized relations between fertility and development which argues that the association between fertility and development has been changing over time and the later time a country enter to the fertility transition، it experienced the more rapid fertility decline. In contrast، a negative and relatively weak relation appears between the onset of fertility transition and the pace of fertility decline after controlling for the effects of various socio-economic variables in multivariate models. This implies that those countries which were undergone their fertility transition later (and the most of them are sub-Saharan African countries)، have experience slower fertility decline. Another important result of the study provide empirical supports for the hypothesis that those countries which enter the fertility transition at the very low level of socio-economic development experienced a relatively slower pace of fertility transition. In contrast، the most rapid fertility decline has been occurred in those countries which enter their transition stage at the relatively high level of socio-economic development. When the pace of fertility decline is examined in connection with the pace of changes in the development indicators، a significant relationships could be find only for those socio-economic variables that reflect human capital. Our results show that there is a positive and significant association between the pace of fertility decline and the rate at which such indicators as child mortality، life expectancy at birth، and the proportion of illiterate population shift over time. On the contrary، there are not significant relationships between the rate of increase in urban population and the economic growth with the pace of fertility decline. This can be an important result especially for effective policymaking concerning the population growth in developing countries