Study the exploratory approach in scenario planning

Future is unknown and uncertainty is one of the feature of future. future study is the science of identifying the future paradigm and making the future in advance. there are different methods for prediction the future that each one has own advantages and disadvantages. The aim of this article is to analysis the scenario planning through exploratory approach. In general, scenario planning in comparison to traditional techniques pay more attention to complexity an uncertainty. In order to showing the main step of exploratory approach a case study was done in industrial cooperation. the objective of this study was to show the tendencies and uncertainty and convert them to adaptable scenario in cooperation. We take these scenarios as a uncertainty spectrum which challenges the managers thinking and then discuss the correlation of these to decision making and policy making. in strategic level in order to integrate the scenarios, rival analysis and strategic vision was used as a key –success factor matrix. In operational level we suggest Monete Carlo simulation as useful technique for integrating scenario thinking and formal evaluation of project.