Development of multi-purpose reservoir operation hedging rule in water resources shortage conditions using MODSIM8.1

Uneven distribution of precipitation in many arid and semi- arid regions like Iran، has led to water reserved for a reliable supply. Recently، large dam construction is more extended for water storage. Construction of the reservoir، while the high costs، it also has many environmental problems. Consecutive drought events have led to hedging rules is more considered by reservoirs operators. This study aimed to develop hedging policies for reducing stress during drought years through the water store before stress period. Therefore، Namroud storage dam river system was simulated using the MODSIM8. 1. After the calibration، hedging rule algorithm was coded in the model and it was run with and without hedging implementation. The system operation indices such as satisfaction، reliability، vulnerability، resiliency and sustainability of the system were calculated for two states. The results were shown that the developed hedging rule algorithm cause adjustment the big stress and uniformity distributed in operation period. With hedging rule implementation، reliability and system sustainability indices were increased 10 and 7 percent، respectively، and vulnerability and resiliency indices were decreased 18 and 9 percent respectively. These results were shown the indices were improved under hedging rule.