Measuring the distribution and density of Ardabil localities using spatial autocorrelation techniques

Introduction With this trend towards urbanity، the aim of city planning and management should be to lower imbalance، guaranteeing a high level of welfare for people، maintaining justice and looking for new solutions to the city difficulties. So for this purpose the notion of E sustainable development was introduced. Accordingly، also having in mind the rarity of resources (soil، land، air،…)، attention was increased to compact expansion and congestion of the city the utilization of which is considered one of the most important elements in city development. During the last decade the idea of a compact city has been introduced in Iran، this idea as opposed to the sprawl city form and also towards sustainable development and solving existing problems of cities and especially metropolises such as Tehran، Mashhad، Ahvaz and others has been distinguished as suitable. In Ardebil unorganized usage of land or not using the lands in city range has brought about a negative horizontal expansion and in recent decades Ardebil has experienced a fast and rapid growth in population and vastness، so the focus should be on a sustainable compact city form. The main aim of this research is to analyze the process of urbanism and recent trends of development in order to suggest an ideal city form for Ardebil. With regard to the major role of cities in development of a country، the framework، content، function، size and shape of a city has been an endless concern for philosophers and theorists from at least 5 centuries B. C until the current era. Coinciding with progression of the industrial revolution theories related to optimal shape and form of cities entered into a new level. Contemplative theories of Haussmann،- Le Corbusier’s theory of bright cities، Tony Garnier’s theory of industrial cities، Howard’s theory of garden cities، Lloyd wright’s theory of idealistic vast cities and other theories introduced in recent decades، all put the emphasis on city as coordinated whole and a dynamic system and are in the pursuit of the ideal city form and pattern. With regard to the fact that the idea of compact cities and how to reach a stable city form is a new and recent topic، there has only been a handful of researches done on this subject. What differentiates this research which has been done on Amol، Tehran، Marvdasht، … is that for the first time the sustainable city form has been put to test in city neighborhoods by using Spatial Autocorrelation techniques and that the emphasis is on a neighborhood based planning which has been neglected in scientific planning and spatial analysis. The principal question of this research is that، having in mind the current trend of urbanism and extension، what is the ideal city form for Ardebil? The required data for this research has been gathered from the population and housing censuses done between 1956 - 2006 and field researches. According to the essence and purpose of this research، the approach would be analytic-descriptive nevertheless other methods like correlation have also been used. As to recognize the shape of this city and to check its quantity (sprawl from compactness) the method of aggregation degree 2- Theoretical bases There are two main forms when it comes to the shape of a city 2-1- Wide spread city: definition of horizontal expansion goes like this: development without planning، without control، uncoordinated and single land use that does not provide a combined land use and from the functional point of view has no connection to other land use of city vicinity and it looks as a low density، groovy، scattered and detached expansion. 2-2- Compact city: a compact city is a sustainability city which has an appropriate shape and scale for walking، biking and public transportation and also such compactness to prod social interactions. Traits of a compact city are: increased land use of urban space، housing congestion، centralization، compactness، combined land use and a kind of self sufficiency and public transportation. 3- Discussion 3-1- Ardebil’s physical development process between 1956 and 2006 Development of Ardebil started in the center then in other stages of development the surrounding area was developed. Nowadays according to the estimations in the comprehensive plan expansion of the city would occur in west and southwest of the city. 3-2- Analyzing the Spatial Autocorrelation model The concept of Spatial Autocorrelation is that the values of studied features are correlated and that the correlation of them is provable by the geographical discipline of the phenomena. Global Moran With regard to the positivity of Moran، population، practitioners and the area of neighborhoods have a Spatial Autocorrelation and changes in these amounts in relation to each other are systematic. So the hypothesis which says there is no spatial clustering between population، practitioners and the area of neighborhoods is rejected. Also in parameters such as the area، population، working people factors have moved from low grades up to higher ones and the pattern of distribution is towards clustering. Especially the number of working people has gone from random spatial distribution towards clustering. Moran Anselin In the year 1996 spatial population concentration and its clustering has been only on two neighborhoods of Ardebil، yet it has been increased in the year 2006 to four neighborhoods. This illustrates the compactness and the clustering quality of northwest and central part of the city and the population that is not clustered in southern parts and the direction of expansion of the city. Spatial concentration of working people has been the same as population and has moved towards clustering from 1996 to 2006. This shows that working people in southwest and central parts are clustered as opposed to working people that are not clustered in southern neighborhoods and the direction of expansion of the city. In the year 1996 the area of neighborhoods were equal and in the year 2006 spatial concentration of neighborhoods around the shoorabil lake were clustered and were surrounded by similar areas. This shows the compactness and clustered area of land in southern neighborhoods. 4- Conclusion and deduction Results taken from global and local Moran depict the fact that although in year 2006 in comparison with year 1996 central neighborhoods are more concentrated and compact but the horizontal transmittance of the city has increased، actually the city moves towards expansion and this expansion is in the direction of quality agricultural fields. Therefore with the negative results of horizontal transmittance، compact development is suggested as a desirable city in Ardebil. Of course it should be considered that compactness does not only mean increasing density، that we should have in mind other traits of a sustainable compact city such as green spaces and public transportation in order to decrease pollution and maintain the environment. 5- Suggestions One of the most important suggestions of this research is the utilization of smaller city blocks in different regions especially southwest and southeast، also existence of vast arid lands without a plan in northwest، municipality’s prevention of extra expansion of the city and construction on agricultural fields، finding an appropriate direction for expansion according to the comprehensive plan and internal city growth leading the city towards a sustainable compactness along with a high quality of life in city neighborhoods. Keywords: Sustainable development، compact city، Desired urban form، spatial autocorrelation، Ardebil city