Oil Price Volatility and Sustainable Economic Growth: a Case Study of Iran and Japan

The achievement to the sustainable economic growth with stabilize volatility is the main objectives of economic policy makers in various countries. Because of continuously oil prices change, which interpreted as shock, the importance of this issue is more prominent in countries associated with international oil markets. Beneficiaries and incur losses countries from future oil price shocks are quite randomly, due to the random nature of the most of them. While, the economy of both importing and oil exporting countries will be admittedly hurt by crude oil price volatility. In present study, oil price volatility is modeling with ARCH family models and so the effect of oil price volatility on Sustainable Economic Growth in Iran and Japan economic is investigated using Markov Switching models. Results of modeling of the volatility show that the role of oil price shocks in development of price volatility is asymmetric. Also the base of Markov Switching models, the hurt of oil price volatility on economic growth of Iran is more than Japan by three regimes. As oil price volatility is one of the causes of low economic growth and, the existence of the oil price volatility, achieve to the sustainable economic growth for the economy of Iran is very difficult. The oil prices volatility, against, just prevents the Japanese economy to achieves the high economic growth. So that the existence of the oil price volatility, the Japanese economy is able to promote sustainable economic growth to the average economic growth state and probability of switching of its status to status of lower economic growth is very low.