Modeling, Assessment and Improvement of Demand and Supply Side Uncertainties in Long-term Dynamics of Power Markets

In this paper, the long-term dynamics of an electricity market is modeled, considering the load uncertainty. Moreover, the generation side uncertainties, including the uncertainties of the generators availabilities, the hydro generations and the wind generations are observed. The problem is analyzed by the System Dynamics (SD) method. Also, the effects of capacity payment on power market dynamics, with and without uncertainties, are modeled and analyzed. The simulation results show how the uncertainties may affect the long-term behavior of a power market. Moreover, it is shown how the effect of uncertainties on market dynamics, may be improved through capacity payment.