Drought Forecasting in East Azarbayjan during time period of 2013-2022

Based on the possible increasing trend in global drought due to the climate change، analyzing this event in every region seems essential. In this study، downscaled temperature and precipitation data were obtained from 16 AOGCM models under A1B، A2 and B1 emission scenarios for East Azarbayjan province during 2013-2022. After assessing the frequency and severity of past droughts in the studied area، temperature and precipitation scenarios were calculated for other 46 emission scenarios using Pattern Scaling method; thereafter، in order to assess the drought condition of the province during the future period، annual Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) of the region was calculated using the median precipitation scenario of the 49 scenarios. Finally the annual SPI map of the region was produced by Kriging method. There will be extreme drought in eastern regions in 2021 and it can be considered as the driest year during the next decade، as overall، 59. 375% of the province will have dry condition. It is predicted that there will be drought conditions in some regions in years 2013، 2017 and 2018، while the whole extent of province will be near normal condition in 2019. 2020 will be the wettest year of the next decade، which will be the only year with extreme wet condition. After 2020، 2014 with covering 50% of the region by wet classes will be the wettest year. In conclusion، except for the years 2013، 2017، 2018 and 2021، 6 other years will follow near normal or higher classes. By predicting drought conditions and precipitation amount of this region، it is possible to suggest strategies compatible with climatic change in this regard.