Large Scale Environmental Assessment and Degradation Management: The Case of Food Insecurity in Ethiopia

The aim of this study is large scale environmental assessment and ecosystem degradation management in Ethiopia. To achieve this aim, eight years (2001-2008) of 500 meter MODIS Collection 5 global land cover type classification maps of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) were used to assess land cover changes in Ethiopia. Based on detailed assessment of the data and our aim, we chose nine out of a possible 54 land cover type transitions for modelling ecosystem degradation. We tested biophysical, imaged-based, climatic and surrogate socio-economic independent variables to model the nine transitions that were grouped into categories of worsening and improving ecosystem trends. Separate logistic regression analyses were successfully conducted for the transition modelling. The changes were then predicted in an integrated dynamic way for the year 2013 to provide a basis for examining trends in ecosystem condition. Proximity to roads, main towns and urban areas and villages, and distance to croplandsand barren lands were the most influential variables in the changing cover types. These variables are also directly manageable for controlling the downgrading trends in the country. The study provided a paradigm for further in depth studies and was linked with available results on climate assessment. Thus, the results can be joined to scenarios of climate and socio-economic changes to provide a platform for informed attempts in reversing the unwanted trends in land use/cover changes in Ethiopia.