Evaluation of Fertility Model by Using Path Analysis in Hamadan City in 2004

Introduction & The most important indicator of population growth is fertility. Fertil-ity is influenced by selection of individual, social, economic, demographic, cultural and bio-logical factors. The purpose of this study is to investigate the factors affecting fertility (num-ber of live births). This was a cross- sectional study of the correlation matrix, which is based on a sample of 500 households in the two-stage random sampling method. First, a question-naire was adjusted and then was provided to interviewers for recording some demographics information and birthrate. To examine the relationship between these variables and fertility model, the most important influential variables on fertility were selected based on the theo-retical model and using socio-economic and demographic variables influencing on fertility. The data were then analyzed by the path analysis using LISREL software. Mean±SD of parity in 500 married women was 2.18±0.904 in Hamadan city. Among the variables, couple education (total effect -0.421) and the number of unwanted pregnancy (total effect 0.27) had the highest effect on fertility, respectively; while husband’s marriage age (total effect -0.00365) had the lowest effects on parity. This study shows that high education is a deterrent factor to live births and also shows that the rise of live births is unwanted among families. Also, it can be concluded from the findings of this study that culture of trend towards early marriage and childbearing which are associated with the promotion of education for women and men can significantly increase the pregnancy order to prevent the lack of active and aging population.