Inter-Structural Ignition Following Earthquake Modeling, Uncertainty Analysis using Monte Carlo Simulation

This paper presents an analytical approach for probabilistic assessment of inter-structure fire following ignitions. In this method, unlike the conventional methods which are based on statistical ignition rate, various sources of ignitions and their associated uncertainties are taken into consideration. Using probabilistic algorithms, ignition probabilities for each source of ignition as well as overall ignition probabilities for each building are estimated. A GIS-based computer software are designed and implemented based on the proposed approach in order to estimate regional ignition probability. A scenario-based approach is used in this model in order to remove potential sources of probabilistic correlation. However, the model is capable of providing full probabilistic ignition results using a Monte Carlo simulation approach. Using the proposed model, the built environment data as well as seismotectonic of northern Iran are used in order to estimate preliminary ignition probabilities for district 3 in northeastern Tehran.