Impact Zonation of Climate Change on Rainfall Pattern (Case Study: South Khorasan Province)

The first step in water resources modeling of a zone is assessment of climate situation on past and future duration. A hydrological modeling with consideration of the latest and most complete production tools evaluate variation of these parameters. Precipitation as the first provisioning of water source has always been of interest. Thus, its variation will be important. Since southern khorasan has not a high capability for attaining surface water resources; therefore, spatial attention to variations of this parameter has a high importance. In this study precipitation was extracted from the outputs of AOGCM model (HADCM3) under A1B scenario and the consequences of climate change in the next 30 years were assessed. The amount of annual precipitation in 3 decades, i.e. 2020, 2030 and 2040 were examined. Finally, zoning of changes in precipitation pattern was carried out. The results showed that there will be a significant downward trend in rainfall. Furthermore, in third decade, Asadiyeh will be in the best situation in terms of precipitation amount while Nahbandan and Tabas will have the worst situation.