Development of Renewable Energy and it's Role on the Future of Power Sector in Iran

In this paper, optimal development of Iran’s power sector over a long-term period from 2015 to 2050 is investigated. In this paper a system-engineering optimization model (MESSAGE) has been used to explore the medium to long-term power supply options. Minimization of the total system costs for the whole study period is the criterion used for optimization of the MESSAGE model. The main focus of this study is analyzing penetration of renewable energy sources under different scenarios. The main scenarios are defined based on the fossil fuel prices and demand changes. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the impact of the discount rate on the main results. The results indicate that the total installed capacity would be 160 GW in 2050 under an optimistic scenario, while BAU scenario calls for 250 GW capacity in the same year. The share of renewable energy sources and nuclear power plants would achieve to 25% and 15% under the optimistic condition. The findings reveal that development of green technologies requires a reasonable discount rate below 8%.