Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Hydro-Climatic Parameters in the Dam Basin of Ekbatan, Hamedan

Climate change is one of the most important factors that will affect different parts of human life on earth and will be adverse effects on environmental resources, economic, social and especially water resources, with changes in rainfall and timing of runoff amount.One of the strategies to mitigate the effects of climate change is to assess its effects on precipitation, temperature and runoff in each region.In this reaserch, assessing uncertainty of climate change models; þMPEH5, HadCM3 and IPCM4 for 2045-2065 period under two scenarios and affects on temperature, rainfall and runoff in the basin Ekbatan, Hamedan. So first determine efficiency LARS-WG model for downscaling of temperature and precipitation variables then assessing IHACRES hydrological model to simulate the runoff. Finally the monthly rainfall, temperature and runoff data were analyzed for the period 2065-2045 compared to base period 2010-1983. The results show that the annual mean temperature increase in 2065-2045 period under the scenario A2, 2/12 and B1, 1/12 ° C and annual rainfall decreases under the scenario A2, -6/1 and B 1, -1/4 percent. In addition, runoff decreases under the A2 scenario -17/2% and B1, -4/19 percent. In view of the uncertainty of climate models under two scenarios A2 and B1 increase temperature and decreases rainfall in the basin and These changes will have negative effects on amount of runoff in the basin.