Attribution of Changes in Climate Variables due to Interannual Climate Variability or Increase of Greenhouse Gases (Case Study: Karkheh Basin)

Since climate change is regarded as a serious threat to different parts of life cycle, separation of factors intensifying this phenomenon seems necessary. This research has investigated the temperature and precipitation trend using the multiple trend test in the upstream Karkheh basin located in west of Iran. For this purpose, two-dimensional graphs of temperature and precipitation anomalies of the CGCM3 Model (1000-year data) were drown for the study area. Then, the attribution of changes in climate variables due to climate internal fluctuations or greenhouse gases affected by human factors were investigated. Based on the findings of this study, in different parts of the study area, the range of natural climate variables for temperature and precipitation changes (95% probability) in the west of the study area are ± 1.4ºC and ±76%, respectively.
The results showed increase and decrease in temperature and precipitation in most of the studied stations, respectively. The variables of temperature and precipitation are affected by climate change and as we approach latest years, especially in the western and central parts of the study area, the impact of greenhouse gases in increasing temperature and reducing precipitation becomes more evident. According to the current results it can be concluded that changes in land use in Iran caused by human interventions can be introduced as a significant factor for the ascending trend of temperature. However, it can be noted that the most important factors of the increased greenhouse gases in recent years are human activities such as land use changes. These changes certainly have affected water resources in the study area.