Predicting Basic Concepts of a Field, Based on the Factors of Oldness and Frequency Use of Subject Terms: A Case Study on Colon Cancer

Prediction of future subjects is a necessity for policy making in science field, which is done by different variables. Accordingly, present research was conducted to predict basic concepts in the field of colon cancer based on the factor of oldness and frequency use of subject terms.
The present study was a descriptive-applied research. PubMed database was used to extract the data. Two separate searches were done on two 25-year-period studies, one from 1965 to 1989, and one from 1990 to 2015. In order to determine and predict important subjects of colon cancer domain (Colonic Neoplasms), two factors of oldness and annual frequency use of the terms were used. To do this, frequency and duration of the use of each of these terms were noticed in a period of 25 years. Then, climax or deterioration of the subject terms in future documents was predicted based on their reducing and increasing frequency in use during a special period.
Studying the degree of conformity between predicted subjects and newly found basic subjects in colon cancer etiology during 1990 to 2015, 128 subjects were predicted as the key subjects for future out of which, 73 cases (58%) occurred in the second period. In addition, studying the degree of conformity between the mentioned 73 cases and the second period basic subjects indicated that predicted subject issues constitute 22% of the key subjects of the second period.
The results of the present research and the studies on predicting future trends showed that there was no method to predict the future subject issues with certainty and high accuracy. It seems that various methods of scientometrics and experts’ views should be considered together in order to have a precise prediction.