Analysis of mega trends effective on future market of banking industry based on structural/cross impact analysis

The purpose of the present study is the analysis of effective mega trends of future banking industry and This study concerning the goal is operational – developmental and from the point of data gathering is descriptive on survey branch, and from the point of foresight method is semi quantitative and exploratory. In this research by using library methods and based on experts’ opinions 117 key trends effective on future of banking industry are recognized and categorized in 4 dimensions based on experts’ opinions. In the next stage by using one of the foresight methods, structural/cross impact analysis, matrix of cross impact of the key trends was designed and through a panel consisted of 8 experts the aggregated opinions about factors influences on each other was entered in the matrix. After analyzing data of the matrix trough a MICMAC influences of each factor were computed and based on this all of them were categorized into main groups and also strategic factors were identified.