The scenario analysis on greenhouse gas emission mitigation potential in the Iranian electricity sector using LEAP model

Environmental issues, especially climate change, due to increased greenhouse gas emissions in recent decades, have become a global issue. Power generation sector has 30.2% share of CO2 emission that it's the biggest environmental pollutants in Iran. Scenario analysis method based on the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) model was used for an analysis of reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the electricity sector of Iran. Business As Usual (BAU), increasing the efficiency of power generation, nuclear and renewable energy and combine efficiency and renewable energy and nuclear scenarios represent different development paths which are possible in Iran’s electricity sector due to various policies. The simulations are applied until the year 1420, while 1390 is set as the base year. In the Business As Usual Scenario, greenhouse gas emissions grew by 5.8% annually between 2006 and 2030, while electricity output grew at an average of 6.6% per annum in this period. In the other three scenarios, greenhouse gas emissions control policies are considered. Thus, the greenhouse gas emission reduction between the BAU and increasing the efficiency of power generation, nuclear and renewable energy scenarios, and combination scenario is 198438, 228877, 360898 thousand CO2eq tons.