Prioritization Risk Model of Avalanch in Mountainous Roads

Avalanches are of highly probable natural disasters on mountain roads during cold seasons. This natural phenomenon is also a usual reason of road closures and casualties in Iran especially in roads between Tehran and northern cities and western and north-western roads. In order to preventing or reducing avalanche incidents, first, more risky points should be identified and next, suitable safety actions must be considered. Previous studies mainly use regional and geological data based on field inspections, whereas, several other parameters are considered in this study and a combined model is developed. The parameters are snow depth, side slope, vegetation, avalanche frequency, vehicle collision possibility, daily traffic count, and expert interview. Ten avalanche-prone points are identified in Karaj-Chalous road and are prioritized using method of TOPSIS. The results show that avalanche frequency is the most effective factor. Moreover, the results show that sections of 62퍍63퍍, 63퍍68퍍, and 70퍍74퍍 are the most risky ones and safety solutions should be considered in these points.