Hybrid Model for Strategic Management of Agricultural Water Demand in Arid Regions

Water management in arid regions such as Iran's central desert is possible solely by applying strategic management of water demand of agricultural sector as the largest water user. In this study, the hybrid group decision-making model (MTAHP) of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Modified Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (MTOPSIS) methods (MTAHP) were used to rank agricultural water demand management strategies in arid regions. Then, a more detailed study was performed for the best strategy. For this purpose, a non-linear programming model was used to optimize irrigation cropping pattern by applying deficit irrigation. The results indicated that the strategy of "changing the cropping pattern" is the best strategy for water demand management in arid regions and using optimization model of land-water allocation will increase the area of the economically high-efficient crops. Four scenarios of different amount of available water were considered in optimization and then the optimum amount of cultivated area and allocated water for each product were determined. The results showed that the cropping area reduction was based on the net profit per unit of water consumption. Also the results showed that by reducing the available water to 40%, the net profit can increase by 19% compared to the current status. In this study, the use of a multi-criteria decision-making model along with an optimization model was proposed to recognize and evaluate the best alternative. The proposed model can be used to enhance agricultural water demand management in arid zones.