Geostatistical Wellbore Instability Risk Simulation Using Geomechanical Modeling Constraining Lithofacies Distribution of Nowrooz Field

Phisico-mechanical properties of rock vary because of complexity of geology and its heterogeneity and changing of litofacies and geometry of structure. An statistical analysis is the appropriate method to analyze the risk based on uncertainties among rock properties. The weakness of this method is summarized in two points: (1) spatial patterns and (2) relations of those data are discarded. In order to cope with the challenge, a geostatistical simulation which is considering lateral changes and geometry of structure give us a proper solution. According to scaterness of compressional and shear velocities of rock due to litofacies variation, modeling of shear velocity was done utilizing bivariate statistics conditioning to litofacies model which has been constructed using acoustic impedance and seismic porosity. Mechanical properties were then modeled based wave velocities and rock density. The risk analysis has been done based on well stability analysis using Mohr-Coulomb criteria. The study’s simulations were done on Kazdumi as a clastic dominant reservoir, and the study’s simulations were done on Darian-Gadvan as a carbonate dominant reservoir. The result shows high risk of instability in shale and argillaceous lithofacies and low risk sand and carbonate litofacies. It means that litofacies controls the instability risk.