Modeling of import sports goods in Iran with ARMA model (1992- 2012)

The purpose of this research is to study and explanation the ARMA model import of sports goods in over 20 years. This is the practical purpose of research and analytic- documental in kind of type. For modeling of sporting goods imports time series data of the Central Bank and customs of the Islamic Republic of Iran during the years 1391- 1371 were used. Auto regression integrated moving average model of the research group investigated and eventually model ARMA was chosen as the optimum model for the final importing sporting goods. The results showed that all coefficients of autocorrelation lag is significant in (AR) and moving average (MA). 91% of sporting goods imports explained by changes in the autoregressive variables. The imports variable was stationary, which means that it entering any shock or government policies that change the import, will be in the short term and the change is not permanent and with the passage long periods shock effect gradually vanished and imports return as well as the period of time before its shock. Therefore, the adoption of fiscal and monetary policy will not work on Iran's import of sporting goods.