Prediction of the Climate Parameters in the Urmia Lake Basin during 2011-2030

Climate change is one of the most important problems in the present century. So, assessing and prediction of future changes is important to mitigate climate change impacts on water resources is very important for economics and socio-economic affairs. The purpose of this research is to predict the temperature and precipitation changes under Scenario A1B, A2 and B1 HadCM3 general circulation models during 2011 to 2030 using LARS-WG downscaling model in the Urmia Lake Basin synoptic stations. The results of the analysis were evaluated in three synoptic stations including Saghez, Tabriz and Urmia in the base period (1990-1961) and in 2010-2030 (2020s) for three variables including minimum temperature, maximum temperature and precipitation. During assessing process, LARS-WG model is evaluated via measures of MSE, RMSE, MAE and the coefficients of determination and correlation. The results showed the model is able to predict the above mentioned parameters accurately, but has less accuracy in the simulation of precipitation. Also, the results indicate a decrease in precipitation in Urmia and Tabriz stations for the next 20 years compared with the base line period. Maximum and minimum temperatures show an increase in all the three stations. It is estimated there would be an increase equal to 1.5 degrees Celsius for the whole basin. Maximum temperature would rise in Tabriz and Urmia stations. An increase in minimum temperature and the maximum amount of rainfall would occur in the Urmia station. It would be equal to 1.6 ° C and 2.26 mm, respectively.