Envestigating the Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on the Survival of Manufacturing Companies using a Hazard Function

Successful entry and competition in the market is accompanied with great sense of unreliability and it contains several limitations. Hence, a great number of firms, especially new firms, will leave the market since after entering. So, only new minority will be survived in some industries or regions. The success and failure of newcomer firms will remain ambiguous, so our knowledge should be improved about growth process of new firms. The aim of present research is to study influences of macroeconomic variables on new firm’s survival time in industries of Mazandaran province during 1364- 1394. Data and information have been collected from mining industries office of Mazandaran province and Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and for survival analysis Event-History data analysis was used. For data analysis product limit estimator model (Caplan-Maier) and life table approach was used and for hypothesizes test, the Cox regression semi parametric model has been used. Result based on the, a meaningful direct relation between inflation rate and survival time has been confirmed and we find a meaningful and reverse relation between interest rate to survive. Also our finding shows that there is a meaningful and direct relation between inflation and survival. Finally a comparison between companies survival function based on unemployment rate has been carried out.