Estimation of Nonlinear Effects of Fiscal Decentralization on Provincial Government Size in Iran (Cup-FM Approach)

This paper investigates nonlinear effects of fiscal decentralization (from two perspectives: expenditure fiscal decentralization and revenue fiscal decentralization) on provincial government size by using statistical and economic information for 30 provinces of Iran during the period 2002-2012. For this purpose, we use control variables such as GDP per capita, trade, and population. This research emphasizes cross-dependency and using the Continuously-Updated and Fully-Modified Method (Cup-FM) econometric methods (Cup-FM) (presented by Bai et al. (2009)). The results show that the effect of fiscal decentralization indicators on the size of the provincial government is in the form of an Inverted U-shaped curve: in a way that the provinces lie on the ascending sector of this curve. Furthermore, estimated parameters of the control variables indicate GDP per capita, trade and population have a positive and significant impact on the provincial government size.