An Analysis of the Relationship between Instability of Agricultural Water Resources and Rural Development (Case Study: Rural Settlements of Zayandeh-Rud Basin Downstream)

1. Water is a major concern for sustainable development in the twenty-first century, as the experts believe that water issues will become a major crisis in the upcoming years, even as a world war over water. Instability of water resources as drought or water shortage has affected many countries throughout history, especially the arid regions and has many damages and consequences in the economic, social and environmental aspects. Zayandeh-Rud basin in central Iran is a region with water problems. Zayandehrood River that originates from the Zardkuh Bakhtiary Mountain is the most important river of the region for the development of agriculture, and a supply for heavy industry and also drinking water sectors and is also very important in all of economic activities. Climate instability in recent decades and the ever-increasing usage of the river over time have led to the instability of agricultural water resources or droughts in recent years. Instability of agricultural water resources has consequences in economic, social, political and ecological aspects, especially in rural settlements. This study focuses on environmental, economic, and social consequences of instability of agricultural water resources or drought in rural settlements of sub-area of Zayandeh-Rud River (eastern part of Isfahan) and its relationship with rural development in the study area.
2. The research is based on descriptive-analytical and quantitative method. Statistical population of research is villages in downstream part of Zayandeh-Rud basin. The population sample was chosen based on Cochran formula and through stratified probability sampling. The study area in the down part of the river (from Isfahan city to Gavkhoni marsh) was divided into two parts, Western and Eastern according to geographic, socio-cultural and political indicators; then, four districts were selected in the ruling classes research. The estimated number for 33153 rural households was 380 people, but the number was reduced to 323 people during the study, due to the limitations and the exclusion of incorrect questionnaire. The estimation for the sample of settlements was 25 villages. Questionnaires were divided into economic, social and environmental indicators in the study area and the indices were compared before and after the drought. In the following, the average of research triples indices (economic, social, and environmental) in SPSS software was analyzed. Then, the results were analyzed using one sample T-test, and then compared to significant differences of impacts of drought in various rural districts using ANOVA test. The average score for each section of the research is the result of analysis and calculations in research.
3. The assessment of the consequences of drought was analyzed in three dimensions: environmental, economic, and social. To measure the economic consequences of instability of water resources (droughts) 27 indicators were used, and based on people's responses to the effects of drought on economic indicators the average of 23.4 was obtained. The greatest impact of drought or water shortage in the indices was allocated respectively to "reliance on government aid such as subsidies", “reduction of income" and "the spread of unemployment". To measure the social consequences of instability of water resources (droughts) 31 indices were studied and the average of social indexes in a range of five-item Likert scale was 4.02. The analysis of social indicators in the study area settlements shows that droughts are the main reasons for "more heavily indebted people", "more stressful living and increased psychological pressures" and "increasing poverty" in those studied areas. Reviews of immigration factors have also shown a direct impact of drought on migration of people from villages. Thirteen indexes are used to assess the environmental effects of water resources instability. The highest impact of drought on environmental indicators is in "drying quants, wells and springs", "reducing the amount of surface water" and "the increase of the depth of water wells (a sharp decline in groundwater levels)”, and the least effect is seen on the following Indicators: "more fire in the natural environment of the region" and "reduction of medicinal plants". The average of environmental impacts of droughts is 4/24. The results show that there is no significant difference between rural districts in the study area in terms of the impact of drought; this means that the rural districts in the study area are relatively similar with regard to the impact of the negative consequences of drought in various aspects.
5. With the instability of water resources in agricultural sector, natural and human environment in the region had been affected and also many environmental, economic, social consequences in human settlements of area had been occurred. Since the settlement of the area (particularly villages) has an agricultural-based economy and is heavily dependent on rivers, “the dried river” had negatively impacted various indicators of environmental and human dimensions. In sum, based on fieldwork research (observation, interviews, and questionnaires), the economy of the study area was dependent on the Zayandeh-Rud River and with “the dried-out river” the permanent flow of the river had ceased, and consequently all of the environmental, economic, and social aspects of rural settlements all around riverbanks had been degraded. Also environmental, economic, and social sustainability are seriously in a grave situation. Finally, the instability of agricultural water resources has many ill effects on the process of rural development in the study area.