Future Perspective of Electricity Consumption in Iran during the Period 2011-2100 under Climate Change Scenarios using Downscaling of General Circulation Models

Production and consumption of electricity in Iran is one of the most important issues in long-term planning. Studies show that the global warming will increase dramatically in the coming decades, which will lead to increase in electricity demand. There is a significant correlation between 5-10 years mean electricity consumption and country-averaged temperature. In this study, mean annual electricity consumption across Iran has been parameterized using 5-year country-averaged annual temperature. The 5-yaer mean temperature of Iran was forecasted to 2100 using statistical downscaling of three General Circulation models of HadCM, NCCCSN and MPEH5. Then, 5-year mean electricity consumption of Iran during 2020s up to 2100s has been simulated by the combination of electricity-temperature parameterization equation and future 5-year temperature. The results showed that the average temperature will increase in the periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 by 1.2, 2.4 and 3.6 °C, respectively when comparing to the baseline period of 1961-1990. Increasing temperatures will lead to increased electricity demand over the country by 51, 81.4 and 117.2 GW comparing to the average electricity consumption in the most recent five-year (1386-1990) available electricity consumption data. The results of this study can be used in nation’s long-term planning for future energy demands, power plant development and climate change adaptation.
period of 1961-1990. Increasing temperatures will lead to increased electricity demand in the country by 51, 81.4 and 117.2 MW comparing to the average electricity consumption in the most recent five-year available electricity consumption data (1386-1990). The results of this study can be used in nation long-term planning for future energy demands and power plant development.