System Dynamics Modeling of Yamchi Reservoir (Iran) by Applying Optimum Cropping Pattern for Operation Policy Proposal

According to increase in water consumption, climate change impacts, and geography of Iran, the operation of reservoirs has become more important. In this study, Yamchi reservoir operation (Ardabil, Iran) is simulated by using system dynamics model in the Vensim software environment. Following that due to the virtual water concept, strategic role of products to supply public demands, more financial benefits, ability to storage (in term of time), and water requirement of products, the optimum cropping pattern is proposed. Hence, the reservoir operation applying the political management as the optimum cropping pat-tern in system dynamics model of Yamchi reservoir and based on three kinds of performance criteria including vulnerability, resiliency, and reliability, is assessed. The results show that applying this policy will decrease the water shortages to 43% in compare to the business-as-usual status. The results of sustainability analysis present the increase in sustainability indices by applying the optimal cropping pattern and comparison of the results indicated effective and practical assessment of the pro-posed policy in reservoir operation improvement.