Effects of Climate Change on Wheat Production in Iran

Climate Change from previous period exists, in recent decades, due to the intensification of human activities have created international concern and its effect on agricultural production worldwide. Annual emissions of CO2 and annual precipitation in Iran were selected as indicators of climate change. and amount of cultivation ,seeding and fixed investment in machinery were selected as indicators of technology. Data on an annual basis and for a period of 50 years were used. For this objective, Distributed Lag Model Autoregresive (ARDL) is estimated. The results showed that both short-term and long-term climate change has a positive and significant effect with the cultivation of wheat production and fixed capital in machinery and seeding was not significant. The coefficients of CO2 and rainfall in the long-term were 0.38 and 0.21 and in the shorttern were 0.22 and 0.12 respectively which means that in the long run by increasing the rate of climate change wheat production increases by.0.38 and 0.21 percent.