A Survival Analysis of Rubber and Plastic Industry Exports

This paper analyzes the impact of factors affecting the export survival of rubber and plastic (2511, 2519 and 2520 ISIC code) using a discrete time duration model. Estimation is based on HS 6-digit product level data for 26 countries from 2005 to 2014. The results show that the probability of export survival increases with being rich in oil and gas resources, common membership in regional integration agreements, geographical and economic proximity. In addition, market diversification and product diversification are the most effective factors that increase the probability of survival of exports. Market diversification is more important for rubber and plastic industry, particularly product diversification for plastic industry. Export sophistication and Initial trade value have a positive effect on export survival. In the end, we suggest that Iran can export products based on comparative advantage and conclude bilateral free trade agreements or preferential trade agreements with Pakistan, Iraq and countries in Central Asia in order to increase the export survival