Expression and design a model to forecast the exchange rate shocks and stress testing of the currency in Iran

This paper attempts to Expression and design a model to forecast the exchange rate shocks and stress testing of the currency in Iran . In other words, what factors influence the currency shock and is there the shock predictability in the currency market. On the other hand, are there in critical condition (shock) the ability to predict currency risk through stress tests? The research method is descriptive-analytic and data collection library using econometric regression model using econometric software Eviews is carried out. The research is method in this study (time series modeling) . The results suggest that based on estimations made clear that the exchange rate shock predictable feature of the model is capable MGARCH. . In other words, using multivariate GARCH model and Conditional value at risk predictability of the exchange rate shock and influence the variable of Macroeconomic variables has been clarified. Finally, using the Back Testing the validity and effectiveness model was estimated and validation tests with stress tests to estimate the shock has been in critical condition.