Effects of Climate Change on Climate Parameters in Seymare Basin

In this research, prediction of precipitation and temperature values using general circulation models of the atmosphere in the period 2021-2050 were carried out. Climate data such as rainfall and average temperature were obtained from the Meteorological Organization. For future climate scenarios, the output from general circulation model HadCM3 under the A2 emissions scenario was used. Due to the low resolution of general circulation models, downscaling model of SDSM4.2 was used and climate changes in precipitation and mean temperature were simulated for future periods. In this study, for SDSM model calibration, among the 26 large-scale climatic parameters (NCEP), an average of 3 parameters most correlated with mean temperature and 6 parameters are most correlated with average rainfall in Seymare drainage basin. The results showed that the predicted climatic parameters for the simulation of climate parameters with high accuracy for the average temperature, but with less accuracy for rainfall. This is due to lack of normal and unconditional situation of rainfall data. The results indicate that the average temperature of the area in the period 2050-2021 compared to the observation period (2008-1979) showed an increasing of 1.7 ° C and average rainfall showed a decrease of 47%.