Forecasting of Human Resource Supply through Markov Model from 2016 to 2021 (Case study: A Bank in Iran)

Human resource planning is a tool which enables managers to select the most appropriate staff at the right time for concerned job positions in order to prevent any interference in the advancement of organizations’ progress. The bank studied in this study is among the leading banks in Iran’s banking industry. Due to some changes in the organizational structure and establishment and integration of new units and the necessity of recruiting required workforce, the need for human resource planning and analyzing its supply and demand is felt more than ever. In this regard, the present study aims at meeting the needs of predicting the human resource distribution in the upcoming years for this bank.
With regards to the subject matter and the nature of this research, this descriptive study is in survey design. Accordingly, in addition to reviewing the existing models, Markov Model as a forecasting model was approached and the number of employees required for this bank from 2016 to 2021 was predicted by this model. The probability matrix of organization's human resource supply in various positions over the mentioned years has been presented.