Comparing Effect Of Restoration Policies Under Climate Change By Using System Dynamics; Case Study Urmia Lake Ecosystem

Finding sustainable and cost-effective solutions in water resources management is one of the most prominent challenges communities confronting. Urmia lake as one of largest hyper saline lakes has an important strategic position and is one of the most effective factors in the region. While the status of Urmia lake is calamitous, finding management practices to restore a sustainable ecological status of Urmia lake, is vital. In this paper, system dynamics approach was used in order to evaluate the effect of different restoration policies on Urmia Lake. effect of policies such as increasing irrigation efficiency, reduction in cultivated land, changing crop patterns and water transfer from Aras and Zab rivers on the lake was evaluated. The results showed that none of the projects are effective on Urmia Lake restoration individually and the simultaneous implementing of increasing irrigation efficiency, changing crop patterns and reducing cultivated area has the greatest effect on increasing water level of the lake and after about 8 years from applying it Urmia lake can be restored.