Prediction of water resource status affected by climate change by ANFIS model and General Circulation Model (case study: Ziarat basin of Gorgan)

In this research, the effect of climate change on rainfall, runoff, temperature and water resource for Ziarat basin of Golestan province, was assessed. General ccirculation model, HadCM3, was used under three scenarios as A1B, A2 and B1 for 3 future time duration as 2011-2030, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099, respectively. In order to down scaling of HadCM3 output, ANFIS model was used. The predicted results showed increasing temperature as 0.32-1.77oC and decreasing precipitation as 1.6-31.46 mm for future durations. Then, the mentioned results, curve number map and physiographic parameters, basin and waterway slope, gained from Arc-GIS, as importing data to calibrated HEC-HMS model was made in order to simulate the discharge of climate future durations. Results presented the runoff volume and peak of discharge have decreased in all three scenarios for horizon 2020, 2055 and 2090 and for all mentioned horizons, the most of decreasing was related to A2 scenario. Percentage decrease in peak and discharge volume was obtained 1.72 and 1.83, 3.06 and 3.07, 4.43 and 4.48 for mentioned periods, respectively. Consequently, based on extracting information from models, no enough storage would happen in dams. Finally, some solution for this problem was presented.