A new approach to determine probable land subsidence areas (Case study: The Salmas plain aquifer)

This research introduces a general framework (GARDLIF) for evaluate land subsidence potential of any area in the aquifers. This methodology evaluated in the Salmas aquifer. In the first, raster layers of the GARDLIF factors were prepared. Then, the layers were reclassified based on the GARDLIF framework criteria and modeling was carried out. The land Subsidence vulnerability map of the Salmas aquifer shows that the most land subsidence potential is related to the north-east of aquifer (Gharagheshlagh) which was consistent with the results of prior studies. In order to assessment the effectiveness of each factors in output layer, map removal sensitivity analysis was performed. The most changes in vulnerability index are associated with remove of the discharge (D) and land use (L) maps that average changes are 1.62 and 1.5, respectively. Due to high rating of aquifer media (A) and impact of aquifer thickness (I) in most parts of the aquifer, vulnerability index extensively changes by remove A and I factors. Based on sensitivity analysis, the least important factor is the Distance of fault (F) that its average variability index is 0.4%.