Prediction and simulation of spatial-physical development pattern of the city of Chabahar, in the horizon of the year 1420 (2041), using RS and automated cells models

Increasing urban growth, increasing population growth and increasing urban migration have doubled the need for informed guidance and spatial organization. On the other hand, urban development prediction is essential for planning and providing the necessary facilities for the future growth of the city. The present study aims at evaluating the changes in the land of Chabahar during the years 1991 to 2014, then, predicting these changes until 2041. Research method is descriptive-analytic. Landsat satellite images for the years 1991, 2001, and 2015 have been analyzed. For data analysis, ARC & GIS, ENVI and IDRISI software were used. And the prediction of user variations until 2041, has been shown using CA and Markov chain models. Results of the prediction show that body expansion of the leads to the compression. From 1991 to 2001, an average of 43.5 hectares per year; and from 2001 to 2014 (during 13 years) 59.5 hectares of expansion are showed. And on the horizon of 2041 it will reach about 28.7 hectares per year.