Simulation of Model Changes by Exchange Rates and Gold Price on the Tehran Stock Exchange Performance with System Dynamics Approach
Article Type:
Research/Original Article (دارای رتبه معتبر)
Abstract:
In this study, after considering the important impact of Stock market on the countrys economy, it will analyze the long-term relationship between Tehran Stock exchange market and the variables of exchange rate and golds price. Keeping this in mind, by using the System Dynamics method and the relationship between Financial, Stock exchange, exchange rate and gold markets data, it will analyze and simulate the movement of large capitals from the stock market (in this study, Chemical industry) to the currency and gold market and vice versa. The simulation is done with the Vensim DSS Software. The overall result is showing that the change in the Macro Economic variables will increase the value of the stock market. In this study, it has used different scenarios for changing the macro economic variables and the results are showing that decreasing and increasing the interest rate by 5% will increase and decrease the stock markets value respectively 21.86% and 3.14% on future.
Keywords:
Language:
Persian
Published:
Journal of Investment Knowledge, Volume:7 Issue: 25, 2018
Pages:
17 to 38
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