The Study of Oil Price Shocks on Economic Growth with Emphasis on the Role of Investment

This study tries to examine the asymmetric effect of oil price fluctuations on economic growth, using the generalized method of moments (GMM) during the period 1992-2015 for oil Exporting Countries and oil-importing countries. The results show that oil shocks play an asymmetric role in the form of oil price fluctuations, and also the results of dynamic panel model suggest that for oil exporting countries, elasticity of economic growth to oil price fluctuations is elastic and positive. While the direct impact of oil price fluctuations on economic growth in oil importing countries is negative and inelastic, and by considering the effects of cross-investment and uncertainty channels, the total direct and indirect effects of oil price fluctuations on economic growth increase. In contrast for oil exporting countries, the marginal reaction of the economy to oil price fluctuations will not be great changes, which indicates economic growth has low dependence to oil prices.