Application of LTM model in predicting and modeling of physical development of the Ilkhichi city

Fast and uncontrollable growing of urbanization causes loss of lands and its recourse, leads to decrease of green areas, open spaces and serious environmental and social problems. So, an essential step to urban planning, management and evaluation of its effects is to simulate physical development of the city. The aim of this study is to understand parameters of physical development at Ilkhichi city with regard to sustainable spatial development of urban issues from ecological and environmental viewpoint in the next two decades. Using Landsat 5 multi temporal satellite images and object oriented techniques, application changes of the lands in 1984-2011 period has been evaluated with emphasis on Sprawl expansion of ilkhichi city. Based on the results, urban area of Bonab which was 94.59 hectares in 1984, has reached to 438.57 ha in 2011.195.84 hectares of mentioned lands has developed on the Garden and agricultural land, which demands management of future development based on the principles of sustainable development.
Therefore, effective factors of physical development in urban area of Ilkhichi city is classified within 12 layers, and by using LTM method, the possibility of urban development map was prepared. After predicting the future pattern of urban development in Ilkhichi city, the protection of gardens and green spaces strategy in the urban development process was operated using hexagonal layout of possibility of urban development map, giving the necessary space for the development, Extraction of natural green belt with the length of 5 km applying the ban of urban development in the around of proposed green belt, maintaining the ecological reserves of Ilkhichi city by reducing agricultural and garden lands, degradation and control of sprawl expansion