Climate Change Impact on Daily Flow in Sezar Basin

Excessive use of fossil fuels, the increasing world population and the ever-increasing of industrial activities accordingly to provide welfare and the needs of humans, thereby has been increased the concentration of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide in recent decades. This increase in greenhouse gases cause a phenomenon called climate change. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of climate change on surface runoff is Caesar's basin (West Iran). The study uses data from a large-scale model HADCM3 under scenario A2, and for small-scale precipitation and average temperature of the climate parameter exponential model was used SDSM. Simulated runoff area for the next period (2021-2050) was IHACRES conceptual model. The results showed an increase in temperature for all stations. The average temperature of the area for the future compared to the observation period increased by 1.7 ° C faces. Simulated rainfall for the next period shows a decrease in precipitation by 24% over the observation period. According to the simulation model IHACRES, the three hydrometric stations used in this study, all stations showed a reduced rate for the area in the future. This reduces discharge for rahimabad, biaton and Cham zaman stations respectively in order to level 29, 19 and 24 percent in the future period was observed compared to base period.