Land Cover Change Dynamics Based on Intensity Analysis in Gorganrood Watershed, Iran

This research investigates the transitions among the main Land Cover (LC)/Land Use (LU) categories in the upstream part of Gorganrood Watershed (GW) as a highly populated agricultural region that is reported to be facing considerable environmental changes in the form of deforestation, natural hazards, erosion, cultivation, and manufactured structures. Land cover maps for 1972, 1986, 2000 and 2014 were prepared, which included six LC classes: rangeland, forest, built-up, farmland, water, and bare land. Analyzing dynamics was conducted using multi-level intensity analysis followed by gain, loss, persistence, and transition exploration. Results shows that 1972-1986 interval was a fast period but changes were not stationary over the whole interval analysis level. At category level, bare land, built-up, farmland, and water categories were active gainers and changes were stationary. At transition level analysis, the transitions to built-up, bare land, forest, and water categories were stationary, from the rangeland and farmland categories. Generally, the surface occupied by farmlands increased at the detriment of rangelands and forests, and that it is the dominant LC/LU type in the watershed nowadays. In addition, the surface covered by built-up areas increased 11 times between 1972 and 2014. The results indicate that, LC/LU changes are associated with the overall population and economic growth and impact natural resources of the area, like similar regions in other developing countries.