Studying the Instability Trend of Urban Housing Prices in Iran

The objective of this research is to study the instability trend of urban housing prices in Iran over the period of the first quarter of 1996 to the fourth quarter of 2015. We have used EGARCH model to quantify the instability of urban housing prices. The results indicate that the volatility of urban housing prices has declined during the first quarter of 1996 to the second quarter of 1998, has been stabled since the third quarter of 1998 to the fourth quarter of 1999, but from the first quarter of 2000 it has experienced an increasing trend. The instability of urban housing prices has been reached to its maximum level, in the second quarters of 2008 and 2013. But comparing the two, the instability in the second quarter of 2013 was higher.