Forecasting of Azarshahr Plain Aquifer Response to the Climate Changes, Using Artificial Intelligence-System Dynamic Hybrid Model

Beside the improvement plans and climate change increasing during the last years and its effects on Azarshahr plain aquifer system, reveals the necessity of precise and applicable study about the aquifer situation. For this aim, Using the Artificial Intelligence, simulation and prediction of rainfall and run-off time series was done and expanded overall the plain by Empirical Bayesian Kriging(EBK), the forecasted total water budget of the plain and the other data were imported into the plain Aquifer dynamic system, in WEAP software. The response of the aquifer against the stresses was evaluated during the reference period from 2013 to 2021, applying the population growth and agricultural water demand increasing. The plain aquifer dynamic system, showed the reservoir capacity losing about 7% at the end of stress period (2021) in consequence of 2 and 1% increasing of population and agricultural water demand respectively. Present study shows the high performance of artificial intelligence and system dynamic conjugation in system response to the future climate changes and it can be useful for the water resources management and prediction of future vital actions.