Analysis of the Situation and Future Scenarios of Resilience in Metropolises of Iran: Case Study (Ahvaz Metropolise)

This is an applied research, using descriptive-analytic method with the aim of measuring social resilience and formulating strategies based on scenarios of social resilience which is done by drawing pictures of the future. The present study was conducted in 2017, taking into account the time horizon of 2027. The statistical population of this research is experts and connoisseurs familiar with the metropolitan issues of the Ahvaz Metropolis in three branches of geography and urban planning, social sciences and urbanization. The number was 48, of which 35 were selected purposefully. In order to conduct research, firstly, using library resources, indicators and factors affecting the social resilience of urban communities were identified. Then, in order to measure social resilience, the statistical tests of Kolmogorov-Smirnov, T-single sample, were used in SPSS. In the other part of the research, the driving forces are determined by experts, and then these factors are prioritized and the most crucial determinants are determined based on the importance and uncertainty for writing future scenarios, the prospectus software. The present study was conducted in 2017, taking into account the time horizon of 2027. In order to conduct research, firstly, using library resources, indicators and factors affecting the social resilience of urban communities were identified. Then, in order to measure social resilience, the statistical tests of Kolmogorov-Smirnov, T-single sample, were used in SPSS.