PPP Revenue Risk Model Management of Freeways in Iran

Revenue risk is the most important risk in PPP highway. In this paper it is introduce a financial model for choosing concessioner revenue risk guarantee. It includes BOT-Annuity, step BOT-annuity, inflation increase Payment. It is possible with this to comparing budget burn to government, minimum and maximum payment, robustness against financial stress test, impact of traffic, affordability for government and possibility for implication. This is used for two Iranian highways Ardakan-Mehriz, Shiraz-Boshehr. The first project does not have enough yearly traffic volume, so it is hardly to use any of mentioned revenue methods. In contrast, the second one, it is possible to use individual or mix of those methods. For this, in BOT-annuity, it should be paid 7177 Milyard Rial yearly. If it is proposed step payment, it needs to be paid at least 301 Milyard Rial for first five years. At the end it will cost 21402 Milyard Rial for government. The other opportunity is inflation model the total government expenditure will be 5742 milrad Rial and start with 581 Milrad Rial for first year of operation. So, step payment could be the best approach for these kinds of projects.