Modelling and mapping effects of managerial and biophysical factors on occurrence of forest and rangelands fire in Chahrmahal-va-Bakhtiari province using geographically weighted regression

One of the important factors threatening forests and rangeland is fires that leads to destruction of a large part of forests and rangelands. Study of this phenomenon and providing management strategies plays a major role to deal with and control such crisis. This study aimed to identify the affecting factors of fire occurrence. The identification of major criteria conducted using a questionnaire as well as gathering information from Natural Resources and Watershed Management Organization in addition to calculation some others. To do so, 3 category of variables including 1- Human factors, 2- Biophysical factors and 3- Instrumental and logistic factors that contained altogether 26 variables are studied. In this research, Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) method was used for mapping and zonation of the burned areas in the province that were occurred from 2007 to 2013. Results showed that amongst the 26 studied variables, monthly income (R=-0.61 and VIF=8.08) and number of rangeland and forest guardian members (R=-.56 and VIF=10.81), number of guard stations (R=-0.54 and VIF=2.2), guardsmen’s’ average age (R=0.53 and VIF=9.71 ), average of slope (R=0.5 and VIF=8.99) and number of voluntary rangeland and forest guards (R=-0.42 and VIF=15.11) are respectively the most affective variables on the occurred fires in range and forestlands. Finally, based on extracted predicted map Vardenjan, Mizdej-olia, Poshtkouh Ardal, and Aarmand are the most vulnerable counties for fire incident. Whilst, Monj and Mougooei encountered the least vulnerability of number of fire occurrence that is significantly in line with occurred fires.