Investigation of Hydrological Drought Process Using Time Series Analysis and SDI index (Case Study of Marian River Basin of Lorestan Province)

Abstract The effects of droughts on surface water and groundwater resources reduce the amount of water available to different sectors. Hydrological drought initially begins with decreasing rainfall and is usually associated with lower levels of lakes and reservoirs. To this end, in order to ma ke appropriate management decisions to prevent the harmful effects of drought, it is necessary to assess the characteristics of this phenomenon by assessing and monitoring the drought. In this research, the time series analysis and SDI shaking technique were used to evaluate the hydrological drought at the hydrometric station at the Marian River during the period from 1982 to 2015. The results of hydrological drought on the sunshine station showed that the highest frequency of droughts was related to mild droughts with 29.41% and severe drought with 11.74% and medium drought of 2.94%. Also, the results of self-correlation series analysis, which showed significant correlation for all months except Azar, before the analysis of its effect was removed by Hamed and Rao (modified by Mann-Kendal), and in December, the ordinary Mann-Kendall test used. In all months of the station, except for the month of Aban and Azar (non significant), during the period of 1982-2015, gradual changes are significant at 5% level, and the sudden changes of the time series are significant at 5% level and have a decreasing trend. Also, the results of the Paty's homogeneity test showed that the sudden changes in the time series were significant at all levels at the 5% level.