The Role of Environmental Monitoring by Mass Media in Predicting Ethnic Crisis

Ethnic crisis has been one of the major challenges in the territorial integrity and internal security of our country in the history. Thus, in order to manage such crisis and minimize their costs, it would be essential to focus more on managing the situation before the crisis and specifically forecasting the crisis to prevent and get prepared to encounter them. The plurality of ethnic groups in Iran, despite the historical solidarity, can be detrimental to national security due to some internal inefficiencies and external crisis. Mass media considering their environmental monitoring function could recognize the potential and forming threats and crisis in the nation and report them to the authorities. Thus, our purpose in this study is to represent and scrutinize the effect of "environmental monitoring and exploration function of the mass media" in" forecasting the ethnic crisis". The method of this research is survey research. The method of sampling is objective and to evaluate the validity of the questionnaire the confirmation of journalists and to evaluate the stability of the questionnaire the alpha Cronbach method has been considered. The results of the study has been also been analyzed regarding to The student Method with the SPSS software. The result of the study confirms that from the media and crisis experts' perspective, the environmental monitoring and exploring function of the mass media has a significant effect on forecasting the ethnic crisis.