Forecast the number of fatalities in accidents inside and outside the city of Tehran province

The field and object: Any accident is a disorder in balance between the components of the human system, vehicle, road and surroundings. predicting future rate of accidents is valuable parameter in the hands of administrators for obtaining the right decision.

The research that was done based on prediction methods using time series data,is a comparative descriptive study that predict the future using retrospective data collected base on library's method. In this research has been paid out to predict the number of fatalities in accidents inside and outside the city of Tehran province. The statistical population of this research, and time series data was the number of fatalities caused by accidents in inside and outside the city of Tehran between March 2009 to Agust 2015 That its data were collected from official information Forensic Medicine Organization of Tehran province.In the present study, Vrhalst and smoothing methods have been used to predict for the coming years. In both methods, to obtain predicted values,also use of methods set and related operations, should be made necessary adjustments and improvements be made considering the issue studied.

The results showed that the Vrhast method in both predicting fatalities inside and outside the city of Tehran's province is more accurate than the smoothing method. The predicted values showed that the number of fatalities in accident outside the city of of Tehran have relatively steady approach and the number of fatalities in accident inside the city of Tehran province will decline in the coming years.

Due to high accuracy Vrhalst method, use this model to predict the number of fatalities will be offered in the future. reduction procedure of fatalities inside the city shows that the effectiveness of the traffic police measures urban roads of Tehran province was more than suburban roads.