Forecasting in the historical Texture with a sustainable development approach(Case study: Shesh Badgir district in Yazd)

One of the most prominent features of the historical core of cities is the presence of precious physical elements and textures.With the global registration of Yazd's historical context in UNESCO and its emergence in tourism, the preservation of this texture and its sustainable development are more felt. The Forecasting approach allows for the best possible use of future opportunities and to avoid negative consequences as far as possible by identifying the future opportunities and threats of urban contexts. The purpose of the present study is to identify the key variables are effective in resolving the existing problems in the historical context of Yazd and to investigate the relationships between the variables and how they affect each other.The method of this study is descriptive-analytical.The nature of the data is qualitative and the method of data collection is library, documentary and survey.In this regard, the opinions of 15 experts in the historical context of Yazd city have been used to identify key factors. In the next step, the forces driving the development of the Sheshbadgir district are identified and these factors are prioritized based on the degree of uncertainty and then the scenarios are formed. Accordingly,the most important priorities are to improve the state of exhaustion,reduce crowding and improve the safety of the Sheshbadgir district.The solutions are suggested such as government loans for refurbishment, refurbishment and renovation of residential units, refurbishment and design of sidewalks,raising public awareness of the historical context,providing more facilities and a favorable environment for investment by tourism companies.